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"You're alive. Do something. The directive in life, the moral imperative was so uncomplicated. It could be expressed in single words, not complete sentences. It sounded like this: Look. Listen. Choose. Act."
- Barbara Hall,
A Summons to New Orleans,
2000
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| | 20/20 Foresight:
Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World
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| | by Hugh Courtney
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ZIN Product Number: 10477318
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| | | |  | | | Product Details
 Format: Hardcover, 240 pages
Publisher: Harvard Business School Publishing
ISBN: 1578512662
Release Date: Jan 9, 2001
Average Reader Review:  (Based on 1 review.)
| |  | | | In Brief
Global market strategist Courtney describes a way for businesses to compensate for the high level of uncertainty in the modern marketplace. In this approach, each aspect of the decision-making process is tailored to the level of uncertainty faced. The text is based upon a study of the strategy problems faced by more than 100 companies as well as a review of the academic literature.
Annotation © Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
| | | | From The Publisher
In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times.
Now, McKinsey & Company consultant Hugh Courtney argues that managers must move beyond the outdated "all-or-nothing" view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, he suggests a simple-yet powerful-alternative: Understand the level of uncertainty you are facing in a given situation, and you will make better, more informed strategic choices.
Based on an international review of the key strategy problems faced by over one hundred leading companies, Courtney reveals how executives can develop 20/20 foresight -- a view of the future that separates what can be known from what can't. While executives with 20/20 foresight can rarely develop perfect forecasts of the future, says Courtney, they can isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this insight to create competitive advantage in today's turbulent markets.
Unveiling a revolutionary framework for diagnosing to which of the four levels of residual uncertainty a specific strategy choice corresponds, 20/20 Foresight shows how readers can leverage this knowledge to answer three key strategic questions: 1) Shape or adapt to uncertainty? 2) Make strategic commitments now or later? and 3) Follow a focused or diversified strategy?
20/20 Foresight also:
* shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced, * describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and * includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time.
A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world.
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 | | | | | Number of Reviews: 1 Average Rating:
A powerful framework to deal with uncertainty in business
-- Krishna Mahesh, September 24, 2001
| |  | | | The Word On The Street
Hugh Courtney has given me a set of practical tools and advice to drive our business forward. 20/20 Foresight is a must-read for all executives in decision-making roles. (Nigel Morris, President, Cofounder and COO, Capital One) —Nigel Morris
This book represents a major step forward in mastering uncertainty. Most managers tackle risk and ambiguity in the wrong way. Hugh Courtney offers a splendid roadmap toward doing it right at last. Let's embrace uncertainty-rather than sweep it under the rug-since rich opportunities lurk in its furthest recesses."
—(Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Coauthor of Winning Decisions, Research Director, Mack Center for Technological Innovation, The Wharton School, and Chairman, Decision Strategies International, Inc.) —PaulJ.H. Schoemaker
Earnest W. Deavenport, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Eastman Chemical Company
Using financial analogies and concepts, 20/20 Foresight provides rigorous tools and practical solutions for use in the strategic decision-making process. Hugh Courtney thoroughly describes his methods and provides insightful examples that give readers the ability to embrace uncertainty." —Earnest W. Deavenport, Jr.
20/20 Foresight is the Swiss Army Knife of tools for handling uncertainty. Hugh Courtney shows how to fit your decisions to an uncertain world and when to mold the world to fit your decisions. Louis Pasteur said that 'Luck favors the prepared mind'-this book won't make you lucky, but it will help you to be prepared. —(Barry Nalebuff, Milton Steinbach Professor, Yale School of Management and Coauthor of Co-opetition) —Barry Nalebuff
"Those willing to tackle a tough subject should find 20-20 Foresight well worth the effort."
--December 2001 —Financial Executive
| |  | | | Preface
1. Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World
2. The Four Levels of Residual Uncertainty
3. Shape or Adapt?
4. Now or Later?
5. Focus or Diversify?
6. New Tools and Frameworks?
7. New Strategic-Planning and Decision-Making Processes?
Appendix: The Uncertainty Toolkit
Notes
Index
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| | | | | | Keywords
Strategic planning, Strategic planning, Business / Economics / Finance, Business & Economics, Corporate & Business History - Strategies, Marketing - General, Forecasting
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