| Preface | |
| 1 | Thinking and Deciding | 1 |
| 1.1 | Decision Making Is a Skill | 1 |
| 1.2 | Thinking: Automatic and Controlled | 3 |
| 1.3 | The Computational Model of the Mind | 7 |
| 1.4 | Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition | 12 |
| 1.5 | Quality of Choice: Rationality | 17 |
| 1.6 | The Invention of Modern Decision Theory | 19 |
| 2 | What Is Decision Making? | 25 |
| 2.1 | Definition of a Decision | 25 |
| 2.2 | Picturing Decisions | 29 |
| 2.3 | Decision Quality Revisited | 33 |
| 2.4 | Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example | 34 |
| 2.5 | Overinclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs | 36 |
| 2.6 | The Rationality of Considering Only the Future | 42 |
| 2.7 | The Rest of This Book | 45 |
| 3 | A General Framework for Judgment | 47 |
| 3.1 | A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction | 47 |
| 3.2 | Research in the Lens Model Framework | 51 |
| 3.3 | Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models | 55 |
| 3.4 | How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? | 58 |
| 3.5 | Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model | 62 |
| 3.6 | Objections and Rebuttals | 64 |
| 3.7 | The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions | 69 |
| 4 | Judgments From Memory | 73 |
| 4.1 | Going Beyond the Information Given | 73 |
| 4.2 | Availability of Memories | 78 |
| 4.3 | Biased Samples in Memory | 80 |
| 4.4 | Biased Sampling From Memory | 84 |
| 4.5 | Availability to the Imagination | 90 |
| 4.6 | From Availability to Probability and Causality | 92 |
| 4.7 | Heuristic Thinking: Adaptive or Just Plain Stupid? | 95 |
| 5 | Anchoring and Adjustment | 99 |
| 5.1 | Salient Values | 99 |
| 5.2 | Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment | 100 |
| 5.3 | Anchoring the Past in the Present | 107 |
| 6 | Judgment by Similarity | 111 |
| 6.1 | Same Old Things | 111 |
| 6.2 | Representative Thinking | 115 |
Format: Textbook Paperback, 1st ed., 3
